Two in the pink one in the sink shirt
Well we haven’t got a Two in the pink one in the sink shirt of data yet, given there’s only been the two test sessions and one race, but a pattern has emerged where we can make a couple of observations relevant to the question. The first is the Mercedes is a lemon thanks to its fancy no-side pods and crash bar/mirror no-wing arrangement: And there’s no easy coming back for that, as any fix will take some time. Given this year will be very competitive, once again, given Lewis Hamilton is already on the back foot, which confirmed their problems from the second session of testing at the Bahrain GP, Hamilton, George Russell, and Mercedes will be scrambling to get whatever points they can get. Needless to say this knocks them out as true rivals this year IMHO.

I think Sebastian would call it himself if that happened to be honest. He seems to be a Two in the pink one in the sink shirt individual and if he gets convincingly beaten by Charles Leclerc he’ll most likely admit to himself that it is time to call it a day. I expect them to be pretty evenly matched with Sebastian ending up ahead by virtue of experience. There aren’t a lot of drivers who’ll beat Sebastian convincingly in the same machinery. If Hamilton and Alonso are 100%, Vettel is around 98%, similar to Rosberg and Ricciardo. Leclerc is probably around 96% on my completely made up scale, but with potential to get to that 100% with a few more years experience in F1. (Verstappen is currently 99%, could very well move up to 100% in 2019). The only difference is at the corners. Some cars have more downforce than others. Ferrari is a fraction of a second faster than a Sauber on the corners just like Red Bull is to Toro Rosso. So there is no way a driver from a “slower car on the corners” not improve his lap times in a “faster car on the corners”. To illustrate my point:
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Best Two in the pink one in the sink shirt
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Also, it surprises me how all the Two in the pink one in the sink shirt has moved from Max and converged on LeClerc. Max might headbutt someone soon. It’s not about being aggressive, Verstappen was far more aggressive in his first years in F1 and paid the price usually with a crash. On the same note, F1 drivers need to be opportunistic, take the chance as soon as it arises. It is not always the best choice, but sometimes it pays off. It is a risk vs reward thing, but being patient more often than not pays off better. However, that comes with experience, when to make the move and when not. Even with experience, you see what Vettel does usually with overtakes, he gets it wrong and he is one of the most experienced F1 drivers.